Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the
coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin
northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern
Montana.

...Central High Plains/Central Plains...
Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to
maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon
dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast
CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s
across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support
moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some
limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the
more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate
deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some
remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will
remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the
primary severe risks. 

Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central
Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development
of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are
possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by
limited instability. 

...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains...
Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX
covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending
northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the
westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including
a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and
northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west
off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of
these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased
large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level
flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent
updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse
rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent
storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT
into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT.

...c*astal Carolinas...
Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from
Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as
it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will
overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south
of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this
boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast
by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging
gusts could be noted with the strongest storms.

..Mosier.. 08/12/2024