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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another
weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some
severe potential may acco*pany this feature, but forecast deep-layer
shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist
in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions,
so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of
the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upco*ing
weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific,
ridging building over much of the western states into the
Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may
support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through
early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally
along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow
regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough.
However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater
severe potential remain low at this extended time frame.