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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening.

...Central High Plains to Black Hills...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving
east across southern MT/WY this morning.  This upper feature is
forecast to reach the Black Hills by early to mid afternoon and
subsequently move into the IA/MO vicinity by early Monday morning. 
At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS
Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be
maintained across the central High Plains.

Morning raob data over the lower MO Valley into eastern NE/KS
sampled a relatively cool/stable continental airmass.  Appreciable
destabilization will occur in the vicinity of a lee trough where
stronger heating is forecast today.  Some isolated thunderstorms
will likely shift eastward from MT/WY into the SD/NE Panhandle
vicinity by early afternoon with additional storm development likely
as stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the instability axis over
the High Plains.  Forecast soundings show long, straight hodographs
which will promote supercellular organization with the stronger
updrafts.  Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible from
the Black Hills southward into eastern CO/northwest KS.  Large hail
and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger
storms before this activity moves east and/or weakens by mid evening
related to the loss of heating.  

...Raton Mesa east into the TX Panhandle and western OK...
A reservoir of greater moisture/buoyancy will exist with east extent
as a modifying outflow boundary beco*es draped across the region
this afternoon in wake of morning storms over central OK.  An MCV
noted in radar imagery this morning will move east across northern
OK through the early afternoon with implied subsidence in its wake. 
Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute
to suppressing convective development through mid afternoon. 
However, heating over the Raton Mesa and TX Panhandle may foster
isolated storms late this afternoon into the early evening.  More
uncertain is if a couple of storms can develop farther east into OK
where large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with a weak
cap.  Model guidance varies considerably (as expected with a wide
array of potential solutions) but mesoscale trends will be monitored
for the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities if
uncertainty decreases.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/11/2024