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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts
of the northern/central High Plains.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Upper ridging should remain prevalent over much of the Plains on
Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop
northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass
response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the
development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee
trough extending southward along much of the length of the
northern/central High Plains. Some northward advance of low-level
moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee
trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this
moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by
late Tuesday afternoon.

Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in
association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and
modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper
levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some
thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe
winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the
length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday
afternoon through evening. Have therefore included a fairly broad
Marginal Risk across parts of the northern/central High Plains to
account for this potential.

...Carolinas...
As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some
enhancement to west-northwesterly winds is forecast across parts of
the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. While
deep-layer shear appears conditionally supportive of organized
convection, poor lapse rates and limited instability may tend to
hinder more robust thunderstorms from developing across SC and
vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Still, occasional strong/gusty winds
appear possible, but the overall severe threat currently appears too
limited to include any probabilities.

..Gleason.. 08/11/2024