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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the
Great Basin through the upco*ing work week, though confidence in
widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast
period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual
amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the
central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough
along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple
shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific
Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will
bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the
Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively
abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to
parts of the Great Basin.

...D3/Monday - Nevada...
Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV
through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited
potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain
receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave
trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into
D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce
strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with
higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope
flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH
values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon,
subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of
dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across
central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions
and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds
limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat.

...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest...
Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the
Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support
some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early
D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region.
Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at
this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning
starts across the region.

..Moore.. 08/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)