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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night
across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South
Dakota.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern
CONUS on Sunday as it beco*es negatively tilted across the
Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest
today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on
Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee
troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central
Plains. 

...Central Plains...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong
isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear
(25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with
this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning
and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet
weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected
to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few
storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to
severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther
south, but this will continue to be monitored. 

Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central
High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm
development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level
shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep
surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to
sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development.
Any strong updrafts which can develop may beco*e supercellular given
the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some
evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS
across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind
threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in
later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/10/2024