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Mesoscale Discussion 1873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Areas affected...Parts of MD/DE/NJ...eastern PA...central/eastern NY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 616...

Valid 091426Z - 091600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and a couple
tornadoes will continue through the morning. Some expansion of the
threat to the north is possible with time.

DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow but strongly sheared convection is
ongoing from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, to the
east of P.T.C. Debby. Area VWPs indicate that the stronger
low/midlevel wind field is translating northward in association with
Debby's fast-moving circulation, with weakening flow noted from KAKQ
and KLWX, but strengthening flow farther to the northeast. 

A warm front extending east/northeast of Debby will translate
northward through the day, though its progress may be slowed to some
extent by widespread cloudiness/precipitation. Near and south of the
warm front, tropical moisture  will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
with locally greater buoyancy possible where some filtered heating
is ongoing from eastern PA into NJ and southeast NY. Very weak
midlevel lapse rates may continue to limit updraft intensity and
organization to some extent, but strong low/midlevel flow and 0-1 km
SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (locally greater near the surface low and warm
front) will support potential for rotation with the stronger cells
and line segments. 

A few tornadoes remain possible from late this morning into the
afternoon, along with some potential for convectively enhanced wind
damage. Some threat may eventually spread north of WW 616 in
conjunction with the warm front, and additional watch issuance is
possible later today.

..Dean/Goss.. 08/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON   39367704 40257779 41387716 42677658 43207590 43397466
            43367351 43337314 42527342 42087346 41707358 39847439
            38727497 38227511 38027526 38037577 38357627 39027679
            39367704