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Mesoscale Discussion 1861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...c*astal Carolinas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 610...

Valid 072356Z - 080200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 610 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue within WW610.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar across the coastal Carolinas has shown
weak circulations off shore and within a band extending inland
across southern North Carolina from Wilmington to the South Carolina
border. Overall, the inland environment is characterized by weak
thermodynamic profiles, given MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and poor
lapse rates (around 5 C/km). The most favorable low-level shear
remains further inland, where around 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is
observed in objective analysis. Given the poor overlap of low-level
shear with instability and generally weak lapse rates, a
continuation of occasional weak circulations and potential for a
tornado could not be ruled out in the short term. 

Further north across the northern portion of WW610 near the Outer
Banks, warming has occurred with temperatures in the low to mid 80s
yielding MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg.  RAP forecast indicate that
shear may increase across this region over the next several hours. 
Should a band of cells move into this region, there may be a more
favorable corridor for tornadoes later in the watch period.

..Thornton.. 08/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34257932 34537893 34727831 34827771 34757728 34517690
            34287696 33807745 33557776 33447838 33407881 33467916
            33617979 33797979 34257932