Skip to main content ↑ ↓
Topic: SPC MD 1855 (Read 22 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC MD 1855

SPC MD 1855

[html]MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NC INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SC
       
MD 1855 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070655Z - 071000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection along the east/northeast periphery
of Tropical Storm Debby's circulation has beco*e somewhat more
well-defined early this morning. A theta-e/instability gradient
persists near the coast, with a narrow inland zone of MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg noted (per recent objective mesoanalyses and a modified
06Z sounding from KMHX) where temperatures remain near 80 F. 

The 06Z MHX sounding and recent VWPs from KMHX/KLTX depict 0-1 km
SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2 for observed cell motions, which is
sufficient to support at least transient low-level rotation with the
strongest cells. While ongoing convection has generally struggled to
beco*e organized, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out
overnight as stronger embedded cells within the primary convective
band move inland and cross the near-coastal baroclinic zone.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   34147884 34387852 35037745 35037690 34857667 34427693
            33847770 33627823 33527882 33797896 34147884


Read more[/html]

Source: SPC MD 1855 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1855.html)