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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY  ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of
eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be
acco*panied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland
across the south Atlantic coast Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and
east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much
of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing
will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity.  Within the latter regime, models suggest that a
couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest
of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low
may begin to evolve by Thursday night.

At the same time, although some model output still various
considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant
tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset
of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland
progression across the Carolinas.

In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or
drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period,
as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern
Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Mid Atlantic...
Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which
is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates
inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level
shear will beco*e at least conditionally supportive of convection
capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of
the low-level circulation center.  Although the degree of
boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains
uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may
develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in
advance of the mid-level warm core.  It seems possible that this
could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when
daytime heating will maximize potential instability.

..Kerr.. 08/06/2024