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Mesoscale Discussion 1830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...eastern Iowa...northern Illinois...southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052209Z - 052315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and a tornado are possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending across the
upper Ohio River Valley into portions of the Midwest. Visible
satellite shows cu development along this boundary in eastern Iowa
and northern Illinois, with a few cells now on radar south of
Chicago and north of Davenport. The environment in this region is
characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear
along and north of the boundary around 40-45 kts. The 19z sounding
profile from DVN further supports this, with around 2300 J/kg
MLCAPE. Shear profiles are somewhat weak in the low-levels, with
around 25-50 m2/s2 0-1km SRH in surface objective analysis. However,
low level shear should increase through time to around 100-200 m2/s2
per RAP forecasts. CAM guidance suggests a few supercells could
develop, with potential for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a
tornado. A watch may be needed to cover this threat for portions of
this area in the next 1-2 hours.

..Thornton/Smith.. 08/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43429220 43519112 43619009 43618941 43258800 42978748
            42628719 42228731 41728765 41408790 41248838 41328934
            41599001 41999155 42199232 42899275 43429220