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Mesoscale Discussion 1828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...portions of the northern Rockies and Northwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052035Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging
wind gusts and small hail. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, afternoon vis/radar imagery showed
thunderstorms beginning to develop across the higher terrain of the
Northwest and northern Rockies. North of the prominent subtropical
ridge, a weak Pacific trough was slowly overspreading the monsoon
moisture over much of the Northwest. Weak buoyancy will continue to
support thunderstorm development through much of the afternoon with
occasional stronger updrafts. Modest westerly flow aloft may also
support a few more organized multi-cell clusters or transient
supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk
of locally damaging winds or small hail in the stronger cells this
afternoon and evening. However, limited buoyancy and the lack of
more focused forcing for ascent suggests the severe threat should
remain fairly isolated. Conditions will continue to be monitored,
but a WW currently appears unlikely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   42111654 42281695 42861719 45361828 47521678 47641638
            48231398 47101288 44501249 43501258 42421314 42141381
            42061428 42111654