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Mesoscale Discussion 1821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...west-central to north FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 595...

Valid 050909Z - 051045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 595 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a couple tornadoes should primarily be confined
to the west-central Florida Peninsula through sunrise, but should
increase later this morning across parts of central and north
Florida. Replacement of WW 595 is expected before its 10Z
expiration.

DISCUSSION...Transient rotation within outer-band thunderstorms has
largely been confined to the west-central FL Peninsula over the past
several hours. This near-term threat is roughly centered from
Sarasota to western Lake counties, largely south through northeast
of Tampa Bay. The 06Z TBW sounding sampled a favorable environment
for a couple tornadoes, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg amid
0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.

As limited diabatic surface heating occurs after sunrise beneath the
extensive cloud canopy surrounding slow-moving Debby, a gradual
boost to MLCAPE should occur farther north and inland. Recent CAM
guidance suggests potential for intermediate banded structures to
reform north of the Tampa Bay area as this occurs, which would yield
a larger spatial extent of the tornado threat. The east-central/
northeast coast of the peninsula will likely have a near-term nil
threat owing to meager MLCAPE of about 250 J/kg per the 06Z JAX/XMR
soundings, and may struggle to appreciably increase until late
morning if an outer band can separately form off the east coast and
spread inland. CAM guidance suggests this may tend to focus from the
FL/GA border northward later this morning.

..Grams/Edwards.. 08/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29268304 29848299 30038265 30048230 29688178 29188156
            28458142 27888150 27398168 26948211 27088242 27348258
            28388281 29268304