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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially
prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories
will gradually beco*e suppressed, with the center of higher heights
shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early
this weekend.  Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant
positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and
the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes
and upper Ohio Valley vicinity.  As this occurs, it appears that
Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate
northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic
coast by next weekend.  While it might not be out of the question
that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable
increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes
across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula
vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this
time.

Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow
developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central
U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge
shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be
conditionally supportive of organized convective development through
much of the period.  However, guidance continues to generally
indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit
the severe weather potential.