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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN
WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas
and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and
perhaps pose some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained
across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this
period.  To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian
Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate
westward across the British Columbia coast.  To the east, as one
short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley
through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave
trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay
vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across
much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England.

In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one
prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern
Great Basin into southern Great Plains.  Another ridge over the
western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern
Mid Atlantic coast.  As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary
to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still
forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward
toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night.

...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia...
Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of
Debby.  Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for
tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where
the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible
buoyancy.

...Northern High Plains...
In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong
westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around
500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing.  As this
supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday
afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for
severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/05/2024