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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of
Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning
as it intensifies.  Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated
strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and
southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight.

...Northeast...

Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the
threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in
the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish
with southeast extent by 02-03z. 

...Southeast Montana Vicinity...

The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has
struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While
instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall
severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread
as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal
hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so
the Marginal risk has been maintained. 

...Florida...

A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into
extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area
into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward
through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the
southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from
these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595.

...Minnesota/Iowa...

Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on
latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will
pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 08/05/2024