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SPC MD 1817

SPC MD 1817

[html]MD 1817 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN DAKOTAS
       
MD 1817 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern Montana...western Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042207Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind to increase through the
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave moving eastward across Montana this
afternoon will provide forcing for ascent to erode MLCIN and result
in thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Across
central/eastern Montana, daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg. Surface objective analysis and forecast soundings also
show profiles with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, deeply mixed
profiles, and large dew point depressions which all favor downward
momentum transfer. Deep layer shear 30-40 kts should provide
organization for storms to grow upscale and present risk of damaging
wind. A watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Smith.. 08/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   45291035 46300982 46830821 46880619 46820505 46640392
            46410358 45940359 45710365 45400391 45220427 45050504
            45010572 44980656 44980762 44920981 44881010 45291035


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Source: SPC MD 1817 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1817.html)