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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN MAINE...MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather
across parts of the southern Atlantic coast, and corridors across
New England into southern portions of the Great Lakes region.

...Synopsis...
Within the amplified flow across the northern mid-latitudes, the
center of an enlarging high may shift slowly eastward into the
Canadian Northwest Territories, while the downstream low progresses
similarly across northern Quebec during this period.  To the
southwest through south of this low, a vigorous short wave impulse
is forecast to rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario into the St.
Lawrence Valley, before turning eastward toward the Canadian
Maritimes.  As this occurs, it appears that a surface frontal zone
will advance south/southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley and upper
Great Lakes region, acco*panied by strengthening deep-layer flow and
shear across southern portions of the Great Lakes into New England
Monday through Monday night.

The western flank of this front may advance more rapidly southward
into and through the central Great Plains, though it appears this
will occur beneath a prominent mid-level ridge building along an
axis from the southern Great Basin through lower Mississippi Valley.
Between this ridge and a downstream ridge over the subtropical
western Atlantic, it appears that a tropical storm may slowly
progress inland across northeastern Florida and adjacent
southeastern Georgia by late Monday night.

...South Atlantic Coast vicinity...
Forcing for ascent, low-level shear, and boundary-layer buoyancy may
remain sufficient to support a continuing risk for convection
capable of producing tornadoes in the northeast/right front quadrant
of the slow moving tropical cyclone.  This may be in the process of
overspreading northeastern Florida early Monday, perhaps into parts
of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina, before mostly
shifting offshore by Monday night.

...New England through the southern Great Lakes...
Enough variability exists within the model output to preclude the
introduction of more than marginal risk severe probabilities at the
present time.  However, it appears that the strengthening shear may
coincide with sufficient destabilization along the frontal zone to
support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development Monday
into Monday evening.  This may include the evolution of a few small
clusters, which may beco*e capable of producing swaths of damaging
wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/03/2024