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Mesoscale Discussion 1798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022251Z - 030115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts will be possible over the next few
hours with the stronger cells from eastern Mississippi eastward
across central Alabama. The severe threat is expected to remain
marginal, and WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east-to-west
oriented broken line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms
extending from just north of Birmingham westward into eastern
Mississippi. This line is located from near and just to the south of
an axis of strong instability, where the RAP is estimated MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition to the strong instability,
the latest WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham has 0-6 km shear in the 20 to
25 kt range. This will support an isolated wind-damage threat as the
cluster moves southeastward across far eastern Mississippi and
central Alabama this evening. If the line can continue to organize a
cold pool, then the potential for severe wind gusts could continue
for a few more hours.

..Broyles/Smith.. 08/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33708816 33848882 33838923 33638945 33268940 32958924
            32748898 32618829 32618698 32718602 32918559 33208548
            33568549 33748581 33638684 33708816