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Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...northwest/north-central OK and extreme south KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020551Z - 020745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe gusts of 45-60 mph along with
small hail will be possible with a slow east-southeastward-moving
cluster along the northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas border area.

DISCUSSION...Outflow mergers yielded a rather deep convective
cluster with very cold IR cloud top temperatures. While the strength
of the wind profile is modest with 20-25 kt mid-level
north-northwesterlies per DDC/VNX VWP data, a ribbon of weak
easterly low-level flow is situated north of the west/east-oriented
portion of the surface front about 3 counties deep into OK. This is
aiding in effective bulk shear enhancement, and may support loose
organization in this cluster and downstream cells forming within a
zone of isentropic ascent. Buffalo, OK, mesonet measured a 56-mph
gust at 0530Z. Along the western periphery of the moderate buoyancy
plume across northern OK to the MO/AR border area, additional strong
to marginally severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours
before convection likely wanes towards dawn.

..Grams/Edwards.. 08/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37179922 37119805 36709716 36539673 36279670 35949717
            35929824 35869949 36389969 36739972 37179922