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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High
Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes.

...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the
north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky.
Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of
moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio
and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots,
suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any
multicells that can beco*e organized. The severe threat is expected
to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the
southern Appalachians.

...Southern High Plains...
At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas
Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is
greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in
the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate
instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating
MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong
storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern
Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the
southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range.
In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb
lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated
severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours
this evening.

...Western Great Lakes...
An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently
analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms
are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this
area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to
regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat
will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible.

..Broyles.. 08/02/2024