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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and
Tuesday night over portions of the Upper Midwest into parts of the
upper Great Lakes region.  Severe gusts and large hail appear to be
the primary hazards.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

Well-defined upper low is shifting east along the MT/Canadian border
early this morning. Very strong height falls are flattening the
downstream ridge over the northern Plains and will continue to do so
later today.  12hr height falls in excess of 150m will spread across
ND into northern MN by early evening, then into the upper Great
Lakes during the latter half of the period. Capping has suppressed
convection across most of the Dakotas, but organized severe storms
are currently migrating across northwest ND. This activity should
spread along the international border through sunrise with
additional warm-advection convection likely evolving across the
upper MS Valley ahead of this activity by the start of the period.
Much of this early-day activity will lift into northwest ON well
ahead of the primary upper low. While isolated hail/wind can not be
ruled out with this activity, the primary concern for more robust
convection will be later in the day as boundary layer destabilizes
immediately ahead of the front/upper low. 

Latest hr** guidance suggests convection should redevelop across
southern MB by early afternoon, then develop south into the upper
Red River Valley before spread east immediately ahead of the upper
low.  Due to capping, it's not entirely clear how far south robust
convection will evolve along the front.  Most concentrated activity
should spread across southern MB into northwestern ON, with more
isolated storms likely along the front at least across northern
MN/WI/U.P. of Michigan. Forecast shear favors supercells, and steep
lapse rates/buoyancy suggest hail/wind are possible with this
activity.

...Northeastern U.S...

Notable short-wave trough is digging southeast across eastern
ON/western QC and should be near the Canadian/New England border by
18z. Substantial cooling aloft will aid destabilization across the
northeastern US as northwesterly flow deepens/increases, in response
to the short wave. Forecast soundings suggest ample shear/buoyancy
for robust updrafts, and latest guidance suggests at least isolated
storms will evolve along a weak boundary as it progresses across New
England.  Hail/wind are possible with a few of these storms.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 07/19/2022