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Mesoscale Discussion 1788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern/central Indiana into western
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011919Z - 012115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northern/central Indiana into western Ohio over the next couple of
hours. These storms will have potential to produce isolated damaging
gusts around 50-65 mph and sporadic hail to near 1 inch diameter.
Timing and coverage of severe risk is uncertain, but this area is
being monitored for possible watch issuance within the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening
cumulus within a broader area of mid/high cloudiness across
northern/central Indiana. More extensive cumulus development is
noted further downstream across western Ohio where clearer skies
have persisted. Heating into the mid/upper 80s F amid 70s F
dewpoints is supporting moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg).
Midlevel inhibition has also mostly been eroded as a convectively
enhanced vorticity max impinges on the region. Continued
heating/destabilization should support thunderstorm development
within the next hour or two. 

Vertical shear is somewhat modest, with around 25-35 kt effective
shear magnitudes noted in regional VWP data and in
mesoanalysis/point forecast soundings. This should be sufficient for
organized cells/clusters. Steepening low-level lapse rates amid a
favorable co*bination of instability and shear will foster damaging
wind potential. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but a few
more intense updrafts may be capable of marginally severe hail as
well.

..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39408563 39538614 39858645 40178663 40388657 40568638
            40828337 40598298 40018298 39748310 39518357 39408429
            39388514 39408563