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Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011853Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose an isolated damaging
wind threat this afternoon and early evening. Limited environmental
wind shear will modulate the overall severe threat and preclude the
need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has been slow to mature across the
Mid-Atlantic region over the past few hours - largely due to modest
(around 5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and shallow EL levels.
Nonetheless, continued daytime heating has been promoting gradual
destabilization and a slow uptick in convective intensity based on
recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends over the past 30 minutes
or so. Continued daytime heating may act to mix out the seasonally
marginal low-level moisture downstream of developing convection,
which should limit MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. However, this will
maximize boundary-layer mixing/depth and support steep low-level
lapse rates favorable for downdraft acceleration. Weak flow over the
region will generally limit storm longevity and organization, but
sporadic damaging winds (generally between 40-60 mph) appear
possible given the thermodynamic environment.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   38137953 38417943 39707803 40737630 40747590 40627550
            40377522 40127511 39757522 38357648 38177666 38027698
            37987734 38007923 38137953