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Mesoscale Discussion 1785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Northern Georgia into the western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011740Z - 011945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered T-storms will pose a damaging wind
and large hail threat through the co*ing hours. Watch issuance is
not expected given an overall modest kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway within the southern
Appalachians from northern GA into the western Carolinas. Recent
surface observations show temperatures reaching into the upper 80s
and low 90s, which should be the convective temperature for most
surface-based parcels across the region. This also implies that any
lingering nocturnal inhibition is quickly being removed - as evident
by an expanding shallow cumulus field. Consequently, thunderstorm
development appears possible in the short term as heating of the
higher terrain continues. Additionally, an uptick in convective
intensity is anticipated in the co*ing hours as MLCAPE increases to
around 3500 J/kg by peak heating. The upstream KMRX VWP sampled
20-25 knot winds above roughly 5 km, which should support some
degree of storm organization and longevity. The co*bination of
meager, but sufficient, deep-layer shear, strong buoyancy, and
steepening low-level lapse rates should support semi-organized
discrete cells and clusters with an attendant risk for large hail
(most likely 0.75 to 1.25 inches) and 50-60 mph downburst winds.
Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, weak/localized
orographic ascent and the modest kinematic environment should
modulate overall storm coverage and intensity.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32958268 32958299 33098336 34168495 34398512 34598501
            34918440 35628338 35878290 34858111 34488105 34238113
            33488174 33138226 32958268