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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated
hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the
overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest
and Ohio Valley.

...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across
parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper
MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90
mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense
cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN,
and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear
attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern
Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through
the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. 

Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing
storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth.
Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and
southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface
winds are in place.  

The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat
for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through
central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is
possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across
northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging
gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more
upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts
of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind.
A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any
intense bowing segments tonight. 

...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians...
A weakening storm co*plex moving southeastward across southeast
KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind.
Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts
of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few
stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development
across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with
some damaging-wind potential.

...Southwest AZ vicinity...
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to
locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO
River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes
overnight.

..Dean.. 08/01/2024