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Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southern and Central
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

Valid 312218Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and large hail is likely to
continue for several more hours from far northeast South Dakota into
parts of western and central Minnesota. The severe threat is
expected to persist past the 00Z expiration of Watch 579, and new
watch issuance may beco*e necessary.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Aberdeen shows a cluster of
severe storms from east of Aberdeen into far western Minnesota.
These storms are located along a sharp gradient of instability near
an area of maximized low-level convergence. Short-term model
solutions suggest this cluster will continue move eastward into
parts of west-central Minnesota, and potentially expanding southward
into south-central Minnesota. According to the RAP, moderate to
strong instability is present over much central and southern
Minnesota, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range.
This, co*bined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 30 knot range, evident
on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support a continued severe threat.
Large hail and severe gusts will be likely with the stronger cells.
The most intense storms could produce hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter, along with isolated wind gusts, perhaps above 65
knots.

..Broyles.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44629724 44889772 45169784 45459778 45729741 46239626
            46529516 46579389 46269314 45749274 45109272 44989273
            44649283 44219312 44089358 44099439 44339578 44629724