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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge,
moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more
southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday
morning.

At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low
pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley
through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours.  Widespread
showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are
expected across this region.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley area...
Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk
-- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday.  This
convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it
continues advancing east-southeastward.  In its wake, the degree of
destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the
worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current
expectations are that moderate destabilization should co*mence,
peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg.  As the upper system
moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near
remnant convective boundaries -- is expected.  With a belt of
moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern
fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection
-- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while
shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the
evening.  Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk once again.  At this time,
uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated
threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher
probabilities.  Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once
the early-day convective evolution beco*es more clear in later
outlooks.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the
afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest
terrain heats/destabilizes through the day.  Though low-level flow
will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft,
mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few
stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of
producing locally damaging winds and hail.

..Goss.. 07/31/2024