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Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Northern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301906Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop across
portions of north-central New York. Additional storms are
anticipated through the late afternoon and evening hours and may
pose a damaging wind and hail threat. Watch issuance is not expected
given a meager kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows isolated
thunderstorms developing across northern NY within the warm conveyor
belt ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. This co*es amid gradual
destabilization with surface temperatures warming into the mid 80s
with unseasonably high moisture content (dewpoints in the low 70s).
These warm/moist conditions are promoting SBCAPE values increasing
from around 1000 J/kg along the international border into the
2000-2500 J/kg range further south. Buoyancy should continue to
increase through the early evening within the weak warm advection
regime, supporting additional thunderstorm development. Latest GOES
IR imagery and lighting data show periodic, but transient, lightning
jumps associated with stronger updraft pulses. However, very modest
mid and upper-level flow (20-25 knots) sampled by regional VWPs is
limiting hodograph structure and overall deep-layer wind shear
values. Consequently, convection will likely remain somewhat
transient with periodic intense updraft pulses. However, somewhat
steep (7.5-8 C/km) low-level lapse rates may support strong
downdrafts with the potential for damaging outflow winds (most
likely between 50-60 mph). Some hail threat may materialize with
more intense cells given around 25 knots of effective bulk shear,
but confidence in the development of a robust/organized severe
threat is low.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43047358 43107470 43207558 43417601 43847616 44307602
            44777528 45067443 45107235 45077166 44997118 44637099
            44147087 43577087 43217107 42957145 42907164 42967201
            43047358