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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad
area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest,
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of
damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are
also possible across parts of the northern Plains.

...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding
convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster
in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into
a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at
mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for
continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds
appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter
space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been
extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this
MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also
pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated
outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY
and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening.

Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through
the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the
lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely
the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop
remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across
central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a
surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this
convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible
if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread
southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this
evening/overnight.

...Northern Plains...
Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability
should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a
surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon.
Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around
30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few
supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this
afternoon and evening.

...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...
A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the
Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered
thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into
parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of
heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of
stronger cells/clusters may beco*e capable of producing isolated
damaging winds.

...Northeast...
Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from
parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm
coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool
temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some
hail.

..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024