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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS...MUCH OF INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough will be located near
the Upper Midwest Thursday morning and traverse to the southern
Great Lakes by early Friday morning. This trough will
sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface
low will likely acco*pany this trough, but the exact location of
this surface feature remains unclear due to subtle differences in
the forecast 500mb pattern. 

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
A MCS will likely be ongoing in the Midwest/Upper Midwest vicinity
on Thursday morning. The evolution/maintenance of this MCS remains
unclear and will depend on the exact location of surface
features/moisture and the evolution of the mid-level trough.
Nonetheless, confidence is high that a very moist low-level airmass
(mid 70s dewpoints) will be present across the Midwest/southern
Great Lakes on Thursday. This will result in a reservoir of strong
instability. In addition, while the exact evolution of the upper
pattern remains unclear, the more broad scenario suggests a somewhat
sharp/amplifying mid-level trough approaching this unstable airmass.
As this occurs, a substantial overlap in moderate/strong
instability, moderate shear, and ample forcing is anticipated from
central Illinois to southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Therefore,
while details still remain uncertain, evidence in some severe
weather threat during the convective period is high enough to
support a Slight Risk. 

...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible within weak lee troughing east
of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will only be around 6
C/km which is the primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat. However, the moist airmass will result in moderate
instability amid effective shear around 25 to 30 knots. This may be
sufficient for scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms
from the Carolinas to the Delmarva.

..Bentley.. 07/30/2024