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Mesoscale Discussion 1733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...parts of southern Illinois...adjacent portions of
Indiana and Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563...

Valid 300227Z - 300430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may gradually evolve into organizing
southeastward propagating cluster with increasing risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts through 11 PM-Midnight CDT.

DISCUSSION...Storms initiating to the northeast through east of the
Greater St. Louis area, have been supported by forcing for ascent
associated with low-level warm advection, in the wake of mid-level
troughing slowly digging through the upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. 
This has been occurring within a very moist (including upper 70s
surface dew points) and highly buoyant boundary layer, in the
presence of at least modest clockwise curved hodographs, beneath
30-40+ kt northwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer.  

While a few supercell structures have evolved, with gradual
decoupling of the boundary layer underway and flow closer to the
surface (near and below 850 mb) forecast to remain more modest,
tornadic potential seems likely to remain limited.  However, with
some further upscale growth still probable through 04-05Z,
increasing outflow, aided by evaporative cooling  within
dry/potentially cool air in the lower/mid-troposphere and melting
hail, may be acco*panied by increasing potential for damaging
surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38448874 38668808 38498750 37888723 37578843 38078912
            38548949 38448874