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Mesoscale Discussion 1511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...eastern
PA...NJ...southern NY into western MA/CT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

Valid 182032Z - 182200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts will remain the main hazard across severe
thunderstorm watch 473.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue along the I-95
corridor this afternoon from near Washington D.C. to the NYC
vicinity. Some of these storms have produced near-severe measured
wind gusts as well as sporadic wind damage. This activity will
continue to pose a threat for damaging gusts the next few hours.
Occasional weak rotation has been noted at times as well, especially
with storms further north across NJ/NY where low-level shear remains
stronger co*pared to further south. 

Some modest airmass recovery has been noted to the north of WW 473
toward Albany, NY. Cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm
into the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg are
noted. Visible satellite imagery indicates some agitated CU beneath
broken upper level clouds. As large-scale ascent continues to
increase and a prefrontal trough shifts eastward through late
afternoon/early evening, additional strong to severe convection may
develop from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY. If additional
convection develops and beco*es organized further north, a watch
expansion may be needed across parts of the Albany CWA.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927656 42717431 42847365 42367278 41137294 39767414
            38677645 38567727 38897800 39467799 39847788 40667699
            40927656