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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to
the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New
England.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across
the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost
of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians
and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially
convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the
northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The
strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the
central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak
surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very
moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. 

...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE...
Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into
the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very
steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level
shortwave trough traversing the Plains in co*bination with a
strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm
development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern
South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough
advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots
which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms
which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow
upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. 

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong
instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to
the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height
rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism
and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However,  a very
unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would
support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level
shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in
storm development may beco*e evident in later forecasts. Therefore,
a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address
this conditional threat.

..Bentley.. 07/29/2024