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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight for
parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large
hail and severe/damaging winds are expected be the main threats.

...Parts of SD/NE/KS...
Storms have generally remained rather isolated this afternoon and
early evening from parts of SD into southwest NE/northwest KS.
However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized storms
will persist across the region through much of tonight, despite
gradually increasing MLCINH. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective
shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of isolated
supercells this evening, with continued potential for hail and
localized severe gusts. 

It remains possible that the cluster of storms across western SD
could undergo modest upscale growth and propagate east-southeastward
tonight with a more organized severe wind threat. However, this
scenario continues to be uncertain, given increasing MLCINH and the
lack of stronger low-level flow (with the primary low-level jet
displaced well to the southeast). 

Farther south, some increase in storm coverage remains possible
across parts of NE into northwest KS through mid evening, before
MLCINH beco*es increasingly prohibitive later tonight. Any stronger
cells/clusters in this region would pose some risk of hail and
strong to severe gusts. 

...IA/MO...
A persistent cluster of storms associated with an MCV across
northwest IA has remained subsevere thus far today, though some
threat for locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out this evening in
association with this cluster. Some further increase in storm
coverage is possible with time tonight, as a low-level jet beco*es
focused into the region. While deep-layer will remain rather modest,
there is some potential for a larger MCS to evolve out of the
ongoing convection, which could eventually propagate southeastward
into a moderately unstable environment across parts of southeast IA,
northeast MO, and western IL, with some threat of isolated damaging
gusts.  

...MN...
A few stronger storms remain possible across parts of MN, where
moderate buoyancy persists this evening outside of areas already
influenced by substantial convection. Rather weak deep-layer shear
should tend to limit storm organization, but locally damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out before convection generally weakens later
tonight.

..Dean.. 07/29/2024