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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad
region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered
across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and
eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday
and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will
be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf
of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region
of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which
will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as
a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. 

...Northern Plains...
As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee
trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded
shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday
afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow
around 25 to 30 knots co*bined with southerly/southeasterly flow
will provide ample shear for storm organization including the
potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is
possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains
after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day
given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther
east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through
the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable
airmass during the evening.


...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt
and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place
(surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate
(35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain
uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given
height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher
probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this
time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk.

..Bentley.. 07/28/2024