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Mesoscale Discussion 1508
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...parts of far northern VA...MD...eastern
PA...northern DE...NJ...southern NY...western MA and CT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 181618Z - 181815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this
afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southwest New
England. The severe threat is expected to increase over the next
couple of hours, and a watch will likely be needed for portions of
the region.

DISCUSSION...Areas of clearing from northern VA into eastern PA/NJ
have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s at midday. This has
allowed weak to moderate destabilization to occur amid 70s surface
dewpoints. Further north into the Hudson Valley and southwestern New
England, thicker cloud cover and showers are keeping temperatures in
the low/mid 70s and limiting stronger destabilization. However, some
clearing across these areas through the afternoon should allow for
modest heating and at least weak destabilization later today.

Latest visible satellite indicates a cluster of vertically
developing CU near the PA/NJ border as of 16z. Latest radar trends
are increasing with this activity as well. This convection is
developing along an axis of greater instability extending from the
northern Chesapeake Bay toward northern NJ. Thunderstorms are
expected to gradually increase across this area over the next couple
of hours. Moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters
and semi-discrete supercell structures capable of damaging gusts. 

Stronger low-level shear and more favorably curved hodographs will
reside from northeast PA/northern NJ toward the lower Hudson Valley.
Latest VWP data from KBMG and KENX show enlarged low-level
hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2. However,
weaker instability in conjunction with poor lapse rates may limit
intensity/longevity of any stronger cells across this area.
Nevertheless, any sustained convection will pose a risk for a couple
of tornadoes. 

Given current trends, a watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2
hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38907664 38807723 38987772 39257778 39817763 40777703
            41607631 42407532 42507523 42737443 42727351 42587303
            42277270 41717255 41317265 40877347 39247597 38907664