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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
ND...NORTHERN MN...WESTERN UPPER MI...CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and
Tuesday night over portions of the Upper Midwest into parts of
Wisconsin and upper Michigan.  Severe gusts and large hail appear to
be the primary hazards.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern High
Plains into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. In
conjunction with this trough, a surface low will deepen and move
from northern MN toward Lake Superior, as an attendant cold front
sweeps through the northern and central Great Plains. Downstream, a
an upper trough will gradually move eastward across the Northeast
and New England, while a weaker upper trough will move from the
southern Appalachians toward the Carolinas. Elsewhere, an upper
ridge will persist from the Southwest into the southern Plains. 

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
One or more storm clusters may be ongoing Tuesday morning from
northeast ND into northern MN, which could pose a threat of isolated
hail and/or damaging wind early in the forecast period. This
convection will likely leave a remnant outflow boundary somewhere
over northern MN by late morning into the afternoon. Moderate
destabilization is expected during the afternoon along/south of any
outflow boundary and along/east of the cold front. Rather strong
midlevel flow associated with the approaching mid/upper-level trough
will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, resulting in a
conditionally favorable severe thunderstorm environment across the
region by mid/late afternoon. 

Despite having a seasonably strong synoptic system moving into the
region, 12Z guidance continues to be relatively muted in terms of
robust storm development along the cold front through much of the
day, likely due to the presence of an initially strong capping
inversion across the warm sector, and a tendency for the strongest
ascent to lag behind the front. Redevelopment of storms during the
afternoon appears most likely near/north of the remnant outflow
boundary across northern MN, with more isolated development possible
southward along the cold front into parts of WI and upper MI by
early evening. The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of
producing hail and damaging wind gusts.  

...Northern New England...
A notable midlevel shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough
is forecast to move across northern New England during the day on
Tuesday. Low-level flow will beco*e veered as a surface low departs
the region during the morning, but residual low-level moisture will
support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in
conjunction with peak heating. Midlevel drying and weak surface
convergence may limit storm coverage across the region, but moderate
midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will support the potential for
isolated cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts and
possibly some hail. 

...Southeast CO into the southern High Plains...
Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of
central/southern CO and northern NM during the afternoon. As this
convection spreads into the increasingly hot lower elevations,
strong to locally severe outflow gusts will be possible. Isolated
high-based storms with gusty winds also cannot be ruled out near a
weak front across the OK/TX Panhandles, though this scenario remains
too uncertain for wind probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 07/18/2022