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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the
Midwest on Monday.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the
High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough
across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast
upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these
features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS.
Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the
northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across
the Midwest. 

...Midwest...
Rich Gulf moisture will beco*e well established across the Midwest
by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very
unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the
Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment
will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will
provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a
favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a
broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain.
Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong
low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear
whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk
area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can
occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can
develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi
River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial
destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe
weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest
Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this
scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level
shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon.
However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday
morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and
southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to
Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not
be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1
period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most
favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until
mesoscale details beco*e more clear.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024