Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...northwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262306Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...One or two supercells may evolve through the 7-9 PM CDT
time frame, acco*panied by potential for large hail and some risk
for a brief tornado.  This is not anticipated to require a severe
weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air,
a seasonably moist boundary-layer across parts of the Red River
Valley has beco*e characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
J/kg.  This is generally focused within narrow corridors near the
Red River, and immediately ahead of a weak eastward advancing cold
front.  Although lingering mid-level inhibition has slowed
convective development, the initiation of sustained isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway.

Subtle mid-level cooling near the southern periphery of a mid-level
cyclone crossing the Canadian Prairies may gradually erode
inhibition further into early evening.  However, based on the
various model output, it remains unclear whether this will beco*e
supportive of a substantive increase in convective coverage.  Even
so, given at least a narrow window for continuing inflow of
moderately unstable air, ongoing activity probably will continue to
intensify.  One or two supercells may eventually evolve in the
presence of 35-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow.  Low-level
hodographs appear modest, but a brief tornado may not be out of the
question, in addition to a risk for large hail.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48439677 49859579 50169531 49399466 47809588 47819669
            48439677