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Mesoscale Discussion 1712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska and
southwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262045Z - 262245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should continue to increase across
eastern Wyoming into far northwest Nebraska and southwest South
Dakota through the late afternoon. The primary hazard with this
convection will be sporadic severe wind gusts. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a gradual build up
and deepening of cumulus along a surface cold front across portions
of eastern WY, northwest NE, and southwest SD, as well as within the
terrain of the Black Hills. Additionally, new convective development
is noted on an expanding cold pool emanating out of northern CO/far
southeast WY. This activity has largely remained sub-severe thus
far, likely owing to a co*bination of poor deep-layer shear and
meager buoyancy within a well-mixed and relatively dry environment.
However, increasing ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse
(translating eastward across southern WY) along with rapidly
diminishing MLCIN will likely result in increased thunderstorm
coverage along the front and outflow boundary in the next couple of
hours (a few lightning flashes have already been noted with the
shallow convection over the Black Hills). Mean storm motions and
deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely along the front should
foster storm interactions resulting in multicell clusters later this
evening. Given the deeply-mixed boundary layer in place across the
region, strong to severe downburst winds appear to be the
predominant hazard. 25-30 knot mid-level flow may support some
organization of deeper cells or more consolidated clusters, but
convective outflow will likely limit the potential for long-lived,
well-organized convection.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42170274 41860299 41630311 41510324 41410347 41370364
            41360378 41420398 41520428 41720455 42020470 42350473
            43080473 43640459 44320397 44730325 44770282 44730232
            44620186 44320148 44060135 43690138 43300155 42660228
            42170274