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Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...Lower Deserts of Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252325Z - 260130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually expanding in
areal coverage over the higher terrain early this evening. This
activity has developed within a weak-flow regime that favors
southward propagation toward lower-desert regions. Latest diagnostic
data suggests a modest corridor of MLCAPE exists from Maricopa
county to near the international border. Convection that spreads
into this airmass may generate gusty winds as PW values are in
excess of 1.5 inches, and sub-cloud (3km AGL) RH is fairly low. At
this time current thinking is the severe gust potential may be a bit
too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue
to monitor for convective organization.

..Darrow/Hart.. 07/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31871308 33561268 33401101 32490979 31261023 31871308