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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern Plains vicinity on Saturday.

...Northern Plains...

An upper low will be centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on
Saturday, with the associated northern stream upper trough extending
southwest from the upper low into MT. The northern stream trough
will develop east across the Canadian Prairies, clipping the
northern Plains. Meanwhile, another convectively enhanced shortwave
impulse embedded in westerly flow will migrate eastward across WY
into the SD/NE vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
shift southeast across the northern Plains during the
evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, south/southeasterly
low-level flow will aid in northeastward transport of richer
boundary layer moisture. Convection will likely develop ahead of the
cold front in ND during the evening and into the overnight hours.
Additional thunderstorm clusters related to the shortwave impulse
emanating out of WY are expected by late afternoon/early evening.
Aided by 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, this activity may also
form upscale into an eastward propagating MCS across parts of SD/NE.
At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible given
favorable thermodynamic profiles and effective shear magnitudes
greater than 30 kt. Timing of shortwave trough ejection and surface
cold front position, as well as questions regarding a recovering
airmass in the wake of an early day exiting shortwave trough still
lend to plenty of uncertainty for the Day 3/Saturday period.
However, greater severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks as these finer scale details beco*e better resolved in the
co*ing days.

..Leitman.. 07/25/2024