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Mesoscale Discussion 1702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Oregon...Southwest Idaho...far Northeast
California...and far Northwest Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242038Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of strong to severe outflow winds are
possible, though watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows isolated convective
development beginning to occur across the region amid strong surface
heating (temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 F) and sufficient
low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the upper 40s to mid
50s F), yielding SBCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg with strong low-level
lapse rates (exceeding 10 C/km). Additionally, broad forcing for
ascent associated with a mid-level trough traversing the region is
aiding is destabilization and erosion of convective inhibition. As
the relatively stronger flow associated with the trough overspreads
the region, effective bulk shear should continue to increase near
30-35 kt.

Given the aforementioned environment and trends, storms are expected
to continue expanding in coverage while exhibiting at least
transient organization. Gusty outflow winds exceeding severe limits
will be the main threat with these storms. Presently, severe storm
coverage is anticipated to remain transient and sparse, precluding
the need for a watch at this time. However, convective trends will
continue to be monitored into the evening.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...

LAT...LON   41981658 41231974 41602026 43162018 44101997 44571846
            44261698 43031626 41981658