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Mesoscale Discussion 1701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241943Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase throughout the
afternoon, with severe wind gusts possible. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows convective development
occurring along the Rim and adjacent mountains in southeast Arizona.
Strong surface heating across the region is resulting in
temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s F. Ample low-level
moisture, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the
upper 40s and low 50s F near the Rim and near 60 F farther
southwest, along the aforementioned heating is resulting in rapid
destabilization, with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Despite generally
weak shear, strong low-level lapse rates of 9-9.5 C/km
characteristic of inverted-V profiles will promote strong outflow
winds that should exceed severe limits once storms mature and beco*e
more widespread. With the early onset the convective development and
supportive thermal profiles, storms are expected to last for several
hours and eventually congeal into a few clusters, prolonging the
threat over region. Given this anticipated time/space coverage,
watch issuance is likely.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31730917 31270950 31271107 31921304 34551297 35451189
            35371075 34320915 32760909 31730917