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Mesoscale Discussion 1696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...and
northwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231756Z - 231930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening across
eastern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin and northwest Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary
on the western edge of ongoing thunderstorm activity from this
morning. These storms, and additional development which has begun
ahead of this activity will likely congeal into a cluster and move
east this afternoon, despite each run of the HRRR suggesting its
demise. This expected cluster will move through through an area with
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 20-25 knots of effective shear, which
should support some marginally large hail and damaging wind gusts
from this cluster of storms. Despite some obstruction from wildfire
smoke ahead of these storms, additional heating into the mid 80s is
expected which should maintain these storms into the evening. Once
boundary layer cooling begins in earnest, expect the severe weather
threat to decrease. Due to the somewhat marginal and isolated severe
weather threat expected, no watch is anticipated.

..Bentley/Smith.. 07/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42899421 43119355 43509257 43239095 42799016 42108967
            41499007 41339054 41619309 41819423 42309453 42889458
            42899421