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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will begin to break
down as a mid-level trough enters the Pacific Northwest on D3/Wed
and moves through the northern Rockies by D5/Fri. Another weak
trough will likely develop in its wake before transitioning to a
zonal mid-level flow pattern by early next week. At the surface,
hot/dry conditions will persist in most areas of the West, with
breezy conditions acco*panying the passage of cold front across the
northern Rockies. Otherwise, weak surface winds can be expected for
most areas of the West into early next week.

...Wind/RH Concerns...
Potential for at least elevated fire-weather conditions continues to
be expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies on D3/Wed through D5/Fri, as the mid-level trough traverses
this region. Guidance remains consistent with highlighting the areas
east of the Cascades on D3/Wed and D4/Thu, and minor expansions were
made to the probabilities in this region. D4/Thu continues to show
potential for critical fire-weather conditions, though spread among
medium-range guidance precludes inclusion of 70% probabilities at
this time.

Diurnally driven downslope winds and low RH will likely emerge each
day across portions of northern Montana, from D3/Wed through D5/Fri.
40% probabilities have been maintained or introduced to enco*pass
this threat.

Pre-frontal southerly winds and low RH may allow for briefly
elevated conditions across parts of eastern Wyoming and western
South Dakota on D4/Thu, but for now probabilities have not been
introduced.

...Dry Lightning...
The recent surge of sub-tropical moisture into the Pacific Northwest
will continue to result in daily chances for thunderstorms and dry
lightning potential. Areas on D3/Wed and D4/Thu have been expanded
based on the latest guidance. Potential for scattered dry
thunderstorms will exist on D3/Wed across portions of eastern Oregon
as the trough enters the region, providing broad forcing for ascent
and stronger deep-layer flow promoting faster storm motions and more
organized storm structures. Confidence in this scenario remains a
bit uncertain, but an upgrade may need to be considered in future
outlooks.

For D6/Sat and beyond, chances for dry thunderstorms will likely
reemerge, though predictability of such features/areas is too low to
introduce any probabilities.

..Karstens.. 07/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...