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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains into the lower
MS Valley and Southeast on Day 4/Sunday. Thunderstorms may form to
the south of a front and east of a dryline across parts of these
areas mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some
indications that the enhanced mid-level flow acco*panying the
shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear will be adequate for
organized thunderstorms across the warm sector. Instability should
be capable of supporting surface-based convection as well.
Confidence in the placement and overall coverage of thunderstorms
remains too low to include a 15% severe area at this time. However,
at least low severe probabilities will likely be needed if current
model trends continue.

Depending on the progression of the upper trough, an isolated severe
threat may persist across some portion of the Southeast on Day
5/Monday. Low-level moisture may attempt to return northward over
the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley in the early to
middle part of next week. However, it remains unclear whether any
meaningful severe threat will develop across these regions, as
multiple upper troughs may tend to remain displaced to the north of
the surface warm sector from Day 6/Tuesday onward.