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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

Some modest deepening of the upper trough over the Great Lakes is
expected on Tuesday. This may allow for some enhancement of
southwesterly mid/upper flow from the central Appalachians into the
Northeast. Meanwhile, forecast guidance indicates several shortwave
vorticity maxima migrating through broader southwesterly flow from
the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. At the
surface, a weak low is forecast to migrate across the Chesapeake Bay
or southern New England vicinity. The acco*panying surface trough
may extend generally along the I-95 corridor from southern NY into
eastern VA, and could beco*e a focus for thunderstorm development
during the afternoon and evening. Some forecast soundings suggest
30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes and at least weak instability
could support sporadic damaging gusts in a very moist environment.
However, forecast guidance varies on the placement of surface
features, as well as degree of instability across the region
(influenced by cloud cover and any ongoing morning convection), as
well as convective coverage. Low-end severe probabilities may be
needed in subsequent outlooks, but uncertainty is too high to
include a categorical severe risk at this time.

...Upper Midwest vicinity...

A surface cold front will sag southward across southern MN/WI on
Tuesday. Modest moisture and instability will be place ahead of the
front across portions of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys. This should support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening, though
vertical shear is forecast to remain very weak. This should limit
organized severe potential, though isolated gusty winds may
acco*pany any stronger cells.

..Leitman.. 07/21/2024