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Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201957Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity across eastern Wyoming and Colorado and the Nebraska
Panhandle through the afternoon and evening hours posing a threat of
severe hail and wind gusts.  Given the isolated nature of the
threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...With strong heating across the region, thunderstorms
have initiated ahead of a weak midlevel impulse moving southeastward
into northern Wyoming (per latest water vapor imagery).  These
storms are developing in an environment characterized by ~1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE and ~25 knots of effective shear, supporting primarily
multicell storms with some short-lived supercell characteristics. 
As such, severe hail and damaging winds may be possible, but the
threat is expected to remain too marginal and isolated to warrant a
watch.

..Jirak/Smith.. 07/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39530440 40280498 41600557 42660562 43070547 43410485
            43280394 42860305 42310252 41010225 40070234 39520249
            39250317 39190399 39530440